Big news this week is that the projected number of Marines that will be transferring to Guam has been reduced from 8000 to 4700.

A lot of people have been singing the blues already, but personally, I see it as more of a positive thing that this was announced. There's been a lot of "wait and see" going on around the island for the past several months. With all the budget cuts and goings on in DC many doubted the Marine move would happen at all. Now I feel confident with the numbers and what they're reporting in the paper.

One of my clients that owns quite a few properties asked me for my opinion about what will happen with the housing market. Recently an article was published saying Guam has 3000 vacant homes. I really find that hard to believe as there is only a little over 1000 listed on the multiple listing service. Sure there will be some rogue owners that don't want to use a real estate agent (shame on you!) but I don't think there could be that many.

So in looking at the numbers and using a little logic, my opinion is that we're still short on homes for rent by the military. Here's why:

Out of 4700 Marines 69% are E-4 and below. That's 3200+ that will more than likely live on base. That leaves us with 1400 Sergeants and above that would be the more likely group to be eligible to live off base. The Navy reports that roughly 1/2 of all military people live off base, so that gives us about 700 Marines looking for off base housing. Presently there are just over 300 homes listed on MLS with an asking price of $1900 – $2450 per month, the most likely range a military renter would be looking for. There are of course all ball-park figures and I could be way off. But the point is, there are not enough rentals in the price range these guys will be shopping in.

And then there is the Navy and Air Force expansion that we don't hear so much about. From what I read, Kadena AFB in Okinawa will be transferring their assets here. With a base population on Kadena at 7500 +/- Airmen, the shortage of housing could be huge.

There are a lot of variables that aren't included here but I think its safe to conclude the Guam Housing market isn't in jeopardy of dying on the vine.